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Monday, August 15, 2016

Rare Variant Comics Watch Part 2


Another venture or look into rare variants or variant comics and watching to see how they've performed in the last few years or last year depending on GoCollect's data or eBay sales. As usual, data will be primarily slabbed copies or graded copies and most likely on the CGC side of things.

So raw copies might have a different track record of growth, sustain, or drop. This is just reporting. I'm not suggesting, recommending or dissuading anyone from buying or not.

Given the data below, it's completely up to you as usual. However, in one case, I will nit-pick actual comic shop orders and gauge somewhat of actual readership interest as opposed to speculator hype.

You'll see what I'm talking about when we get there. Alright, here's the next batch of rare variant comics to watch out for.




CAPTAIN MARVEL #17 2ND PRINT KAMALA KHAN VARIANT
1st cover appearance Kamala Khan as Ms. Marvel
2nd cameo appearance of Kamala Khan


A comic I've yet to talk about. Yes, this is a 2nd print and a variant that has Kamala Khan as Ms. Marvel on the cover. That has made this 2nd print quite a sought out key for the character.

Now, there's debate about whether this is the 1st appearance of Kamala Khan because she's also on the cover, but right now CGC notes this as "Ms. Marvel (Kamala Kahn) cover. I do think it should be recognized as 1st Kamala Khan as Ms. Marvel cover.

On the regular cover, CGC notes this issue as the 2nd cameo appearance of Kamala Khan, so it is a double whammy key for the character despite being a 2nd print. Also, the regular cover of the issue does not have a very high print run and is estimated at around 18,173.

This 2nd print has been said to be around 1,000 copies, but nothing really confirmed if that's true. Still, word is that it is rare.

How has this comic done since hype about Kamala Khan and her being the 1st Muslim superhero character to headline her own comic series? Let's take a looksie starting with CGC 9.8s as usual.

When it comes to this comic it looks like it's going up if you just looked at the GoCollect eBay sales data on the left, but when you dig into it further, you'll see that the performance for this comic is all over the place. The average value of 2015 and 2016 combined is around $650.


On the other hand, take a look at where this comic started when CGC 9.8s hit the market and other comic speculation sites started to recommend their readers to buy, buy, buy! By October of last year, this comic started selling at $800 bucks and even hit a high of $949.25 before descending back to the $800 range.

From there, it's been a rollar coaster jumping in-between the $400 and $700 range. Take a look at the auctions with multiple bids compared to Best Offers or Buy It Nows.

See anything interesting? Only one reached the $700 mark in back in January of this year. The rest of them that had multiple bids fell in the $400 and $500 range.

This comic did seem to fizzle pretty quickly by and during this year so far. Will it pick back up again?

Well, if Kamala Khan gets announced to debut in a movie or TV show, that may bump up interest in this book. Let's see how 9.6s have done this year.
 
Slabbed 9.6s for the 2nd print of Captain Marvel #17 actually looks like it's going up, and technically it's true. The average that recorded eBay sales on GoCollect started off at around $400.

Then once again, this comic seemed to fizzle in value or demand. Highest sale was $695 back in November of last year. The most recent sale may be a bump or a fluke.

Actually, I see a CGC 9.6 copy on eBay right now or at the time of this writing for $375, so there's the answer to that and which way it most likely will go. 

Not too many of this 2nd print on eBay currently, so I'm curious to how this comic looks in the CGC Census so far before we get into 9.4s.
Only about a 121 slabbed 9.8s currently, and 216 total. 9.4s are pretty low at the moment, but they haven't done all that well on eBay.

CGC 9.4s started off strong in 2015 and then fizzled by this year as you can see. I do mean fizzle, because I look at how many sales compared to the value drop and compared to the amount in the CGC Census.

We now know that they're aren't too many in the CGC Census and that's discounting PGX and CBCS. From November 2015 to June of this year there's only been 8 sales of CGC 9.4s on eBay. From November of last year to August of this year, there's only been 19 sales of CGC 9.6s.

Then for CGC 9.8s there's only been 46 sales from October of last year to July of this year. A low census, not many hit the eBay market during a month's span, so demand may not be that strong for this key or most buyer's don't want to pay the prices that sellers are asking for the comic currently.

Either way, this comic has lost some interest for most speculators or comic investors in the meantime. Not to say that it won't pick up from here on out, but that also doesn't say that it could be stagnant or drop further in value.

We'll have to see when I revisit this series next year or near the end of this year. If you're interested, Kamala Khan's 1st cameo appearance is Captain Marvel #14 volume 7, and her 1st full appearance is being noted by CGC as All-New Marvel Now Point One #1   

eBay | Amazon | ComicLink | ComicConnect




HOWARD THE DUCK #1 GWENPOOL VARIANT
1st appearance of Gwenpool

I just recently mentioned this comic not very long ago at all. This is a check up to see how this comic has been doing since then.

A lot of other sites mentioned this comic long before, and although the character did appear on a variant cover of Deadpool's Secret War #2 prior, CGC notes this currently as Gwenpool's 1st appearance.

Why? Because she is actually in a story in this comic. I don't make up the rules when it comes to 1st appearances or how they're noted in Overstreet or CGC, and I really could care less what the 1st appearance is for this character or what fans think it should or shouldn't be.

Once again, I'll let you decide when it comes to that. If you think a cover appearance counts as a 1st appearance, then get the one that has her 1st cover appearance and tote it to others who think the same.

I'm just here to see how this one has done since I last discussed it.  I only discussed CGC 9.8s last time, and they seem to still be doing okay.

From the stats I posted in a hot key comics of 2016 article in July, the last or most recent sale was the $305 May sale. So the newest sales on eBay for this grade and comic are the June and July sales and the most recent sold for $355 via bidding auction.

Not entirely sure about CGC 9.6s since I didn't talk about them last time. They seemed to have finally hit the $200 mark this year. 
Well, you can see that these are on the move upward. The variant cover is a 1:25 deal so it's around 2,500 estimated print run or maybe even 3,000.

Yes, I will be revisiting this comic and in this series later in the year to report. Cover date is January, 2015.

eBay | mycomicshop | ComicLink | ComicConnect





TOTALLY AWESOME HULK #1 1:25 CHO VARIANT
1st appearance of Amadeus Cho as Hulk

Bruce Banner dead, Amadeus Cho becomes new Hulk? Uproar from most comic fans?

Sure, bound to happen. The uproar, I mean.

It is what it is, and I'm sure enough fan resentment about this could eventually lead to slumping sales, more outcry, and eventually bringing back Bruce Banner as the Jade Giant. Well, that's if you look at comic book history when publishers try to shake things up with this kind of stuff.

Anyone remember Hal Jordan returning as Green Lantern back in 2004-2005? When it comes to initial hype, I'm sure most fans and speculators jump on a trend and values increase for a short while.

Sometimes, they actually sustain or even continue to rise in value, which begs the question of how this beast has been doing? First lets look at the sales record or comic shop orders of how the series has been doing according to ComicChron.

So, the regular cover #1 is 74,471.
Issue #2 - 39,469
Issue #3 - 35,709
Issue #4 - 32,585
Issue #5 - 31,165
Issue #6 - 26,775
Issue #7 - 30,808

This sucker is still pretty new, hitting comic shops around December of 2015, but I see sales slumping for the actual comic series. Then again, July and August sales have yet to pop up on ComicChron, so maybe they're bouncing back.

We all should know that titles do get cancelled when sales are poor for a comic series, so if this title continues with mediocre sales or worsens, you know what may likely happen.

As mentioned above, regular cover had an estimated print run or North American comic shop sales of 74,471. So the estimated print run of this variant cover might be around 3,000, and I did round up from 2,978.

CGC Census for this comic is below and at the time of this writing.
Comic is pretty new so I didn't expect there to be a lot of copies graded yet. Some are probably in the process already, but who knows? 

Alright, how has this comic variant been doing? So far GoCollect has no recorded data for eBay sales of this comic. A CGC 9.8 did sell on eBay this month, but it was a Best Offer at $119.99, so it might of sold for $100 or possibly below it.


I put in some extra raw copy sales of this Frank Cho variant. There are a few other variants for this issue, and another Frank Cho variant as well as a Michael Cho 1:20 variant for this issue.

Will have to see how this one does during the year. So far, off to a pretty slow start, and actual and initial comic order numbers aren't that impressive yet. I'm actually wondering if the high orders for issue #1 was due more to speculators than actual readers or collectors and the lower print numbers thereafter might reflect actual interest or readership for the character a bit more correctly.

Currently and concerning Amadeus Cho, his 1st appearance in Amazing Fantasy #15 volume 2 is the comic that is seeing more heat compared to this comic or variant.

Cover date is February, 2016 for this Totally Awesome Hulk #1 Frank Cho variant.




So when I looked up actual comic shop orders or estimated print runs for issues to the Totally Awesome Hulk comic series, I can loosely gauge the actual readership or interest of the character by those numbers. Look, I don't care for forum talk about get this and get that or this is going to be the next break out character.

I want to see actual numbers and sales to gauge interest or actual readership once speculator hype dries up.

It is usually the speculator factor, and you can see how it works with actual #1 issues. Why is Totally Awesome Hulk #1 orders that much higher than the other issues estimated print run averages?

You know why. More speculators are gonna gun for that #1 issue, especially if it 1st sees a character becoming something like the Hulk or whatever, so comic shops order a bit more for those issues. Then after issue #1 or hyped up comic is done, actual readership or interest more likely will be reflected a bit more accurately in comic shops' monthly orders of the comic series.

I did see the same pattern for Ms. Marvel volume 3 and volume 4, both starring Kamala Khan. High orders for #1 and then a drop in orders for the rest.

Ms. Marvel #1 volume 4 or the 2015 series had 79,222 estimated copies for #1 and then issue #2 dropped to 46,610 and then issue #3 to 32,364 and issue #4 to 30,916.

So, you can somewhat gauge actual popularity or readership that way and speculator hype too. Look at the more popular comics and you'll see they usually have higher print orders on a more consistent basis throughout their run.

This, of course, does not mean that readership or popularity cannot grow for a character, right? Sure, it can.

Anyway, take it or leave it. Speculators are more concerned with low print orders, but if you're looking to somewhat gauge actual fandom or popularity of a character or comic series, consistent higher print orders do matter.

Comic shops are not going to order huge amounts of issues if their customer base has little interest in that title or comic series. That should be common sense, but like mentioned before, if the order of issues go up and remain pretty consistent in a higher range, there's a good chance that readership or fan base has grown.
 
If you think Kamala Khan or Amadeus Cho are going to be iconic and lasting characters, grab 'em up. If not, pass on 'em. I'll give you some first appearance covers just in case some are interested in the two.

Alright so what's being noted as Kamala Khan's 1st full appearance as Ms. Marvel is in All-New Marvel Now Point One like mentioned before. It has an estimated print run or comic shops order of 32,929 back in January of 2014, and it does have Kamala Khan as Ms. Marvel on the cover.

There is a Steve McNiven variant cover for that issue of course. This variant cover is a 1:75 variant, so it's pretty  rare if you're into that. 

There's probably only about 400 or 500 copies. It's the 2nd cover in the image above and does not have Kamala Khan as Ms. Marvel on the cover.

Concerning Amadeus Cho's 1st appearance in comics, that comic is Amazing Fantasy #15 of the 2nd series, and I'm not sure there are low print or 1:in whatever variants for that comic. Least, I couldn't find any. 

This comic has an estimated print run of around 13,957, so it is a low-print run comic, and Amadeus Cho appears as the super genius Mastermind Excello. Good luck on your hunt or selling and see ya back for more comic goodness or badness.



9 comments:

  1. Hey Mayhem & fellow bros,

    thanks for bringing that Amadeus Cho thing to the table. I have the Secret Wars GwenPool cover but I was not happy to see she was not in there. Guess I have to look for that other appearance in HTD. Talking about minor characters - I have a question concerning the first appearance of Felicity Smoak. Well, due to her strong appearances on tv, Fury of the Firestorm 23 was quite talked about. I got a copy for 15 bucks but I have no idea were that character will go. Is gocollect giving an idea which way the wind is blowing? I guess interest can only stay strong if she is featured in the comics accordingly.

    Ace

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    Replies
    1. Might sound ridiculous, but what about a Felicity Smoak key issue list?

      Max Rebo

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    2. Felicity Smoak's 1st appearance in Fury of Firestorm #23 is plummeting concerning CGC 9.8s since 2015. 9.6s have bounced up somewhat. 9.2s have dropped in value from 2015 to 2016. I don't think there's strong demand for this character as there aren't many slabbed sales on gocollect. Also, there's quite a bit of copies on ole eBay currently. Raw copies are selling around $20 that are NM or high grade.

      Delete
  2. Actually I didn' t read or hear much about the new Hulk in the media. MARVEL should have done better bringin' the news on the street. Plus I' ve heard a lot of times now that producing new (old) Nr. 1 titles is hurting sales. MARVEL hasn' t yet come up with a concept that is equally good as DC52. Nuff' said.

    GIZMO

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    Replies
    1. Hey, GIZMO, there was some news that hyped up Amadeus Cho becoming the Hulk, but not a lot. There's was the normal backlash as to be expected.

      As for #1 issues and reboots or rebirths, maybe it's hurting sales on the Marvel end, but the Rebirth stuff has been pretty strong so far. I dunno, I'm a little tired of the reboots when it comes to both publishers.

      Delete
  3. Hey Mayhem,

    Hows it going? Been a long time. Hope things are good on your end.

    Great list to start with but as a collector I am going to pass on this "2nd print" hype. I dont say this because I dont have the book personally but it's crazy that the prices for this book in particular is approx $500-$600. It goes to show you what to expect from a low print book. The cover art is "okay" not that great. Rather buy an ASM 129 or stick to silver,bronze age keys. Just my opinion...

    Thanks,
    Sid

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    Replies
    1. Heya, Sid, has been a long time. Things are ok here, what about yourself? Actually, I don't blame ya for feeling that way and I STILL feel the same concerning Golden, Silver and some Bronze age goodies as opposed to the newer stuff or even rare or low print variants. But, some peeps ask me to write more about stuff I don't necessarily care for, and I'll do it but with more numbers or sales data involved so they can decide for themselves.

      Most long-time readers like you already know how I feel about certain type of comics. No need for me to continually throw my opinion about them. I'll just let the sales numbers speak for themselves. Take it easy, bro, and good to hear from ya.

      Delete
  4. Great info ! Best site out there ! If Kamala sticks, the second print is the one and only ! It is her first full appearence anywhere and it is on the cover of an ongoing title. I agree the 800 range seemed inflated and not real but the 600 range is ! This modern is pulling down big money and yet only 200 graded .I would say rare is right on. I also like the variants for the new ghost rider and nova.

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  5. Its very rare for a 2nd print comic to go for big bucks in the market. There is another modern 2nd print comic that is doing quite well and that is Amazing Spiderman 654 2nd print variant-1st Flash as Venom. It's been selling for a lot more than the 1st printing. High grade raw copies avg around $100-$150 and high grade CGC copies sell for $300 or more.

    ReplyDelete