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Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Hot Comic Investments of 2015 Part 6

 Well, I hope you all had an awesome Halloween this year. Mine was pretty good.

We got three more hot comic investments that did pretty well or were just plain bonkers during 2015, and like the other parts to this series, the ones coming up will focus on CGC or CBCS sales that GoCollect has compiled from the mighty eBay.

If you missed Part 5, that link will transport you back. If you're ready to continue onward, enjoy!





AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #129
1st appearance of the Punisher
1st appearance of the Jackal

It wasn't a matter of if concerning the Punisher hitting live action again. It was a matter of when. With the success of the Daredevil Netflix series, a lot of people were speculating or campaigning for the Punisher to finally hit the big or small screen.

This character is just too good to pass up, and with Daredevil's Netflix series taking on a dark tone, it makes perfect sense to add one of the most extreme and darkest vigilantes in Marvel Comics. Am I excited about that? Do monkeys like bananas? Hell, yeah!

So, I wrote quite a bit about the first appearance of the Punisher for quite a while now, even recommending it in 2014 and maybe even before that. To be honest, I'm a fan of the Punisher so I could care less how hype affected one of the best Bronze Age Marvel key comics to invest in during the year so far.

Yipes! Pretty big increase there for Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 9.8s in August of this year. This comic hit $7,000 mark in 2013 but then had a roller coaster of a ride during 2014 and most of 2015.

This one is pretty tricky to gauge. There aren't an enormous amount of 9.8s in the market now. eBay has one priced at $13,000 but with a Best Offer on it, so the new price of around $10,000 just might hold there or  continually go up.

We all know the Punisher is going to be in Daredevil season two and rumors have it that the Punisher may be spun off into his own Netflix series. Then again, it could fluctuate between the $9,000 and $10,000 mark if more decide to break this one out of their vaults and throw 'em back into the market relatively at the same time. 

If 9.8s are nearing the $10,000 mark or threatening to break it and sustain around there, common logic dictates to look at how 9.6s are doing. Why is this?

To find out how much of a disparity is between 9.6s and 9.8s of course. Right now, 9.6s are just itching to sustain around the $3,000 range.

I'm only saying that because there is a pretty big disparity between them and the next higher grade of around $7,000. That to me looks like quite a bit of room to grow or potential growth.

Even if the average of 9.8s fall back into the $8,000 or $9,000 mark, there would still be quite a bit of a gap of $5,000 to $6,000 smackers. If 9.8s fall back into the $6,000 to $7,000 range that's still a disparity of $3,000 to $4,000.

If you've been reading this hot comic investments of 2015, you'll notice that I'm looking for disparity values between grades. So far we've discovered that there is quite a bit of a disparity between 9.8s and 9.6s. Depending on how much or even if 9.6s do go up, there is a possibility that 9.4s can get a slight bump in value as well.
However, if you look at the CGC Census, there are quite a bit more 9.4s as opposed to 9.6s currently. CGC 9.6s have a total submitted amount of 278 while 9.4s have 536. In terms of 9.8s on just the CGC Census alone, theres 89. I think it can be fair to assume that there might be more than a hundred if we also take PGX and a few raw copies at that grade floating around there.

Disparity is not all that I look for, though.


Funkiness or clunkiness is something I also pay attention to like comparing CGC 9.4s with 9.2s. Why in everything that's holy would the most recent sales of 9.4s and 9.2s be selling so close in value?

The last sale of a CGC 9.4 sold for $1,545 and the last logical sale in September of this year for a CGC 9.2 sold for $1,525. Yes, I'm disregarding the $500 sale on the 28th, because it seems to be a fluke deal to me. Lucky guy who snagged that one though.

As I've said before, catching these oddities or bunched up values for certain grades can signal that something has to give, either a bump in value for the next higher grade or a slight lowering of the lower graded one.

In the case of 9.0 CGCs for Amazing Spider-Man #129, it lowered in terms of the last two sales in October. However, for most of the year, it's been bobbing up and down between the $900 and $1,000 range.

I could say that it should be up in the $1,000 range, but 9.0s have the highest total copies in the CGC Census currently. Also, the sales for 9.2s and 9.4s are too bunched up.

Something's gotta give either way, and if we take a look at 8.5s and 8.0s we will see the same deal.

Once again, two grades close together with bunched up values. I marked the most recent sale of the CGC 8.0 in red, because it absolutely does not make sense when compared to 8.5s.

How do we look at this? Well, look at the recent sales of 8.5s in the month of October. They've mostly sold within the $800 range for the entire month.

The August sale of the 8.0 passing the $800 isn't the only one within the year, but most 8.0s have been selling within the $700 range. I can see that 8.0s most likely need to drop back into that range if I compare the sales of 9.0s to 8.0s concerning the first appearance of the Punisher.

Now, believe me, I own a copy of Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 8.0 and would love to have it be in the $800 range, but even I can see that it needs to drop a bit temporarily. Even more so, the two CGC 8.0s currently on eBay are over-bloated in price considering that an 8.5 CGC is priced cheaper than both of them at $895.

Just because I say that it should doesn't mean it will. CGC 9.6s could very well bump up and bring the rest of the grades after it up as well.

Also, there's still an amount of careless buying being done out there due to what and when a copy is available or hits eBay. Slabbed ASM #129s aren't overly abundant in the market as of this writing, but buyers are still purchasing the next lower grade at prices of the next higher grade.

For instance, let's look at CGC 7.5s. Another strange buy and pretty recently as well. This is why I encourage people to actually research different grades when buying.

There's no way that is gonna stay at the $800 range currently, especially when there are two CGC 7.5s up on eBay priced in the $600 range. Yes, I expect 7.5s to drop, and if you look at 7.0s currently on eBay, most are priced the same as the two 7.5s.

Super crazy, yesum. Well, at least, in my opinion. Just because I think things should drop in value or go up for certain grades doesn't mean it will.

It surely doesn't mean that it will stay that way for long either. Things could very well move up in the long run, but in the very near future for 7.5s, there's a high possibility the next two sales might very well be in the $600 range.



BATMAN #59
1st appearance of Deadshot

Suicide Squad movie, hype, scarcity, over-bloated prices, and a somewhat hot year for the first appearance of Deadshot in Batman #59. This Golden Age goodie didn't have all that many sales in the last two years which is no surprise.

Sure, you can attribute it to scarcity, but you can also attribute it to actual prices that sellers have for this key issue Batman comic. This will be a short looksie at this comic.

Okay, nevermind the first CGC 7.0 entry since that sale was in February of 2014. It will surely be more expensive than that if you look at all recent sales to come after it. The majority of them were single sales and mostly all occurred this year with the exception of two. 

Also, the 5.0 sale was in January of this year and the 4.5 was in May, so that explains the 5.0s having a lower sale price. Not rocket science there.


The only grade that had two sales for Batman #59 were 3.0s, and it made a pretty big leap for a low grade in about a year. Despite reaching $2,195 smackers, a 5.0 CGC did sell via bidding auction for less very recently in October. 

Also, that 3.5 CGC that sold for $1,342.04 was snagged in September. That copy was also a bidding auction. Someone really over-paid for that CGC 3.0 back in July, but that could be because of what was actually available in the market at the time.




STAR WARS #1 35 CENT VARIANT
1st issue to comic series
Movie adaptation

Over-valued? Perhaps, but the fact still remains that Star Wars #1 35 cent variant has been on the radar for collectors for a long time now. It is one of the most valuable Bronze Age comics out there.

Back in the 1990-1991 20th edition of the Overstreet Price Guide, a NM copy was guided at $300. In the 2002-2003 Overtstreet a NM copy guided at $750. Last years guide clocked it in at $5,500 for a low NM or NM minus.

This year's guide has a NM minus at $6,000! Limited distribution is estimated at 1,500 copies give or take a few for this issue.

Top that off with definite movie hype, and it's no surprise that some graded copies jumped in value quite a lot in 2015. Let's look at the damage.

Not surprisingly there's only been a few sales for this 35 cent variant. I think that has to do with what seller's are actually asking for concerning this comic than actually trying to find a copy.

The 9.4 sale was back in December of 2014, and grades lower than that have definitely moved past that mark. Take that price with a grain of salt for CGC 9.4s.

Let's start off by making these graded sales clear: CGC 7.0 sale was back in November, and the CGC 6.5 was back in May of last year. The 6.0 sale was in September of last year as well. The prices for those just might be void.

The sales for 9.0 on the mighty eBay were all for this year, and it did have a strange year indeed.

The price ranges are all over the map, starting at six grand then to ten grand from February to June. Then a day later after the first June sale, copy sells for $7,995?

Was that an auction that someone threw up and it was snagged the same day? I don't know, but that's bonkers.

Then in September, another copy sold for a whopping $13,810.77, surpassing the sale of the CGC 9.4 in December 2014. Hot damn! Did I mention that this market often appears more bonkers than logical?

Not like this is Star Trek! This is Star Wars! Backed by the Force! 9.0s wasn't the only grade to have used the Force either. 4.5s and 4.0s had an interesting year.
4.5s definitely shot up this year and recently as well, but expect that price to be higher the next time around. 4.0s also had a sale in October and surpassed the previous 4.5 CGC sale. Still, the 4.5 did have a bigger increase than the 4.0 if you want to get down to the nitty gritty.

There are however 12 VG+ total submissions and only 8 VGs in the CGC Census currently. 9.0s have 22 as of this writing. Pretty interesting either way.



All sorts of things to look at and analyze when it comes to certain key comic investments and how they performed. You can look for disparities, which can determine a possible gap in value between two grades that may signal potential growth.

As shown in the Amazing Spider-Man #129 example, you can also see odd happenings where a group of grades are bunched up around the same value. How does that help you?

Well, if you're on the hunt for that investment comic, it's a better way to gauge where a reasonable price should fall into as opposed to an over-bloated price. If you're selling and want your comics priced to sell, it helps to know what a fair price is.

Another thing to look for are the actual sales numbers for a comic and it's grades. If there's a lot of them, chances are they're gonna continually bob up and down between close price ranges.

If they're pretty scarce, you'll usually see a lot more sporadic price jumps as is with the examples of both Batman #59 and Star Wars #1 35 cent price variant. 

The perception of over-valued or under-valued is only based on the actual prices comics were sold and the rarity of that comic either being available in the market or on the CGC Census. Yes, I know there are CBCS copies and PGX copies out there as well, so the findings are not an absolute determination or written in stone.

However, the determinations concerning over-valued and under-valued made here are based on numbers instead of bias. Anyways, I think you get the point and it probably makes sense or some sense.

Part 7 is ready, so see you at the next part.





13 comments:

  1. Enjoyed this one very much! Didn' t know about that 1. Deadshot appearance. As far as Star Star Wars 1 goes, I' ll settle for the 30 cent edition. The money people pay for that extra number 5 on the cover is astronomical. And it goes to show: our market and the collectors in it have gone
    C R A Z Y !!!

    Ace

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  2. I totally agree with what was posted above. Where is this demand coming from? For a price variant??? Can this demand/prices really be sustained? Will the guy that paid $13k end up losing a butt ton of cash? Or maybe he's just happy enough owning a piece of Star Wars history? And most of all, how in the world can someone afford/justify a 13 thousand dollar Bronze age book and still have money for living expenses???
    Inquiring minds want to know!!

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  3. I agree that Batman 59 is a super tough book to find. Not to many available period, so the astronomical prices come with the scarcity and 1st app it carries. I'll stick with having a nice copy of Detective Comics 474. Just glad I was able to get a mid-grade ASM 129 when I did back when they were more affordable. Yes, I'm just happy to have a high grade copy of Star Wars #1 30cent 1st print. That 35cent variant price is out of this world.

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  4. Great analysis as always! I always learn something from you!

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    Replies
    1. Heya, Alan, you got a really cool blog "The Comic Picker". Really enjoyed reading some of your stuff!

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    2. Thanks! It was hard to keep up the blog but I appreciate your opinion!

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  5. Well I guess I did pretty good at getting a lot of these books in this thread back when they were cheaper. Probably should of waited till now to sell my Werewolf by Night 32 and New Mutants 98 copies but still did make a nice profit on both. It just would of been better if I would of sold them this year instead of last year. Oh well lesson learned I guess. I think prices for New Mutants 98 are to insane for the amount of copies available . I know Deadpool is a popular character but come on now. Can't wait for the next part to come. Keep it up man. Love the site.

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    1. It's hard to say or tell some one, "Oh, you should've waited to sell this or sell that," because who knows if it will be a high peak year for a comic or a low one? I think it's kind of a douche bag move to do so to be honest, so I'd never say it.

      As long as you made a profit (a nice profit even better) then I'd always say congrats! It's sure a lot better than a loss on those comics, right? Good stuff, man!

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  6. Well tcm bought my first walkimg dead comics. 28. 109 and a few more from ur list. Don't know why. Just did it lol. Jw

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    1. Impulse buys, JW? I do that sometimes. I got the Fight Club 2 comics out of curiosity. Read them and didn't care for the story much.

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  7. Hey tcm bought some walking dead today and have no idea why the hell I did it. Bored I guess. Looked at ur key list and pick up 28 109 and a couple others which I can't remember lol. Jw

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