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Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Hot Comic Investments of 2015 Part 5


All I gotta say is that there's a lot of comic related goodness happening or about to happen. Jessica Jones is gonna be ready for streaming pretty soon, and I'm looking forward to that. Also, the Flash series on the CW is kicking much ass so far. 

This is Part 5 to the Hot Comic Investments of 2015, and from the banner above, I'm sure you can figure out which key issue goodness we'll be looking at in this part. It will be a bit of read just to warn ya.

So, same drill as usual. Here's three more comic investments that performed well in 2015, and if you missed Part 4, that link will bring ya back.




LUKE CAGE HERO FOR HIRE #1
1st appearance Luke Cage
Origin of Luke Cage

You guys watch the official full Jessica Jones trailer that was released three days ago? I dunno about you, but it looks pretty damn good.

To no surprise since it's been confirmed for quite a while now, Luke Cage will be in the series as well as his own after Jessica Jones whomps some baddies in her soon to stream Netflix show. Lots of good stuff on the big and small screen coming soon.

Regardless, Luke Cage Hero for Hire #1 has been hot for a while now. No doubt that it was a hot first appearance comic in 2014 also, but just when you thought hype might of died down for this comic, think again.

2015 definitely saw some goodness for Luke Cage and his first appearance and origin in Luke Cage, Hero for Hire #1. Sweet Christmas, let's look at this Bronze Age key issue!

Since there's only ten 9.8 copies registered with CGCs, it's no surprise that there weren't any sales for this grade during 2015 just yet. I'm sure any smart collector that has this 1st appearance is letting it marinate in their vaults currently and this comic at 9.8s are very scarce in the market right now.

However, there were 9.6 sales on the mighty eBay. Actually, only one for 2015 and the previous was in 2013. Needless to say, a pretty big jump happened for this grade this year.

It increased slightly more than $3,000 in a year and three months. Dunno about you, but that's a nice profit there. CGC Census has 46 graded 9.6s so far as well.

CGC 9.4s also not surprisingly got a bump since it's last sale in 2013. Starting again in February of this year, 9.4s hit the $2,000 range and sustained there. It increased more than $1,300 from the most recent sale in September to the very last sale back in December, 2013.

This grade is also pretty scarce on eBay. Only one copy up there so far. February is only two months after Mike Colter was confirmed as Luke Cage, so I'm going to assume that may something to do with the increase but not entirely sure.

9.2s did not do so well and had a drop, but then again, there were only two sales this year and the latest was via auction. It looks like 9.0s pretty much sustained within the higher $800 range.

Obviously, the news of Mike Colter being cast as Luke Cage around December of 2014 didn't have much influence concerning this drop from August to September. So, once again, it's hard to correlate comic book TV hype with key issue value increases. It may be because the latest sale was an auction, but who really knows?

9.0 slabbers had only 4 sales during 2015, and it appears to have done slightly better than 9.2s this year.

It finally hit the $900s in September, shortly after the 9.2 was sold for less, but it dropped back into the higher $800s via auction the month of this writing.

Clearly, this book was already on an upward trajectory during 2014. Judging from the data of both 9.2s and 9.0s, slabbed 9.2 copies should be a bit more above the value of the 9.0 slabber that sold for $999.99 September 9th.

The 9.2 currently up on eBay is grossly over-bloated in my opinion though, but 9.2s and 9.0s still have a bit of wiggle room for potential growth. I'm saying this because 9.4s are more than $2,000 dollars less than the most recent 9.6 sale back in February of this year.

If 9.4s have quite a bit of room to grow and close the gap on 9.6s a tad more, then 9.2s and 9.0s have a bit of room to grow as well. Then again, that's if 9.6s don't drop in value.





Ah, and we have some funkiness going on here. 8.5s seriously need to surpass the $600 mark. 9.0s are already near the $900 mark via bidding auction and 8.0 VFs only $10 less than an 8.5? Also, there's been more sales for 8.0 VFs than there has for 8.5 VF pluses.

Then again, there are zero 8.0 slabbers on eBay at the time of this writing. Currently there are four CGC 8.5s on eBay, and one of them is a Best Offer that's somewhat priced decently if the Best Offer could be accepted near the low $600s.

We'll have to see how these two play out by the end of the year. Should be interesting.














Looks like 5.5 slabbers need a bit of boost or 5.0s need to come down a bit. A 6.5 for this book also sold around the $250 area in October, so we got a bit of funkiness for 5.0s to 6.5s. Something's gotta give and that's either a slight increase or decrease for these grades.

When four grades (since 6.0s need to be included also) have the most recent sale or even sales that are very close to each other, it doesn't take a super genius to recognize that something's off. However, this funky munky can be attributed to just more than careless buying.

Remember that some have eBay Bucks to burn. Anyone or all of those recent 5.0 to 6.5 sales could have had an eBay Bucks coupon to lower the actual purchase price.

It's what I did to help buy this key issue. In looking at this data, we can see which grades need a boost in value. 9.2s make absolutely no sense when you compare the disparity between them and 9.4s. It's about a thousand dollars in-between them, so there is a bit of room to grow.

8.5s should be past the $600 mark. When I say "should", it doesn't mean that it's definite. It just means that it would make more sense, but when did this comic boom make sense?

These prices could very well drop, but I am doubting that since there aren't a whole lot of copies of this key being thrown back into the market just yet.





BRAVE AND THE BOLD #28
1st appearance of the Justice League of America

Okay, everyone knows why this comic has become hot in the last two years. I don't think I need to talk about the eventual Justice League movie parts 1 & 2 that have been confirmed.

Even though the movie was confirmed in April of last year, this comic has done quite well in 2015 for obvious reasons. The anticipated Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice flick is getting closer and closer, and I'd be a lying fool to say I'm not the least interesting in finding out what that's gonna be about.

Despite movie hype, the back issues market recently discovered the rarity of many Silver Age DC Comic major key issues. They are without a doubt more scarce on the market compared to Marvel.

For example, let's compare the first appearance of the Justice League of America to Amazing Fantasy #15 and the first appearance of Spider-Man. For AF #15, there's a total of 2,402 submitted copies in the CGC Census. For Brave and the Bold #28, there's only 743 in the census at the time of this writing.

Of course, this doesn't include the raw copies still out there and the other grading services like PGX and CBCS or whomever.

But this isn't an Amazing Fantasy #15 vs. Brave and the Bold #28, so back to the eBay sales for slabbers concerning the key issue in question. The image to the left is the GoCollect sales data for the last 24 months or 2 years.

As you can see, there weren't that many sales for most of the grades on ole eBay for this issue. The most sales were surprisingly 2.0s compared to all the other grades.

Don't mind the funkiness of the only sale of 7.5s being quite lower than 7.0s. That single sale happened in July of last year, and there are zero CGC 7.5s up on eBay at the time of this writing.

Yes, in looking at 7.0s, it's safe to say that 7.5s have moved up in value since July, 2014. Just how much depends though, because values could always drop or not.

What is more interesting to look at in terms of funkiness is the actual sales. So, there were only two sales for 7.0s in the last two years.

One was way back in November, 2013 for only $1,750. Wow, if you snagged that baby, great job and congrats, because a little less than two years later or a little less than a year-and-a-half later, that puppy hit the $14,000 mark.

However, if we rounded it to just two years even just for the sake of simplicity, this bad boy increased in value $6,125 per year since 2013! Talk about a comic investment, right?

Even more so, 6.5s also moved up significantly with an increase of $5,240 since November, 2014. Crazy, because that's only 3 months later!

To be honest, these drastic jumps make me uneasy despite these comics being hot and pretty scarce during this year.






Since there were no sales of 6.0s or 5.5s in the last two years, we have to skip to 5.0s. In April of this year, there was an increase of $2,331 and then an increase of $900 in June. Last 5.0 sale was a CBCS graded copy as well.

In looking at 4.5s, the only sale this year hit $5,495, an increase of $2,145 since this comic's last sale in December, 2014. 5.0s and 4.5s are relatively close to each other in price.

If you take into account the missing 5.5 and 6.0 grades, there's $5,595 in-between 5.0s to 6.5s. So, a 5.5 should be around $8,265 and a 6.0 around $10,130 if we do the math according to GoCollect's eBay sales data.

That is, of course, if the value for 6.5s doesn't drop below $11,995. However, 6.5s have a $2,005 gap in-between itself and 7.0s. I don't see much of disparity or gap in-between each grade starting from 4.5s to 7.0s.

However, CGC 5.5s most likely will sell in the lower $7,000 range since there are two currently up on eBay at or around that price. One might even sell in higher $6,000 range.


Here's where I see a slight oddity. The last 3.5 sold for less than a 3.0, and both are CGC Universals?

Both grade's last sale were also in the same month of the same year as well. 3.5s should by all accounts be in the $3,000 range. A 4.0, in which the last sale was for $1,950 in December of 2013, should be a few hundred past the $4,000 mark.

Hot comic in 2015? Absolutely, only one grade did not perform very well and that's 2.0s.




SILVER SURFER #44
1st appearance of Infinity Gauntlet

I personally know that this comic was a hot one in 2015. Once, people started touting this as the first appearance of the Infinity Gauntlet, I dug up my Silver Surfer #44 and #45 and slung them back into the market.

Both were raw copies and not in that great of shape, most likely a low FN. Still, both sold decently. Hey, I'm a Ron Lim and Thanos fan, but I can recognize a hype or trend comic.

I've had both in my collection for quite a while, and both were pretty much bargain bin buys until hype about Thanos and Infinity Wars movies plopped into the web-o-sphere. Despite my decision to let this one go, this comic has definitely heated up for both raw and slabbed copies during this year.

Since this is a Copper Age comic that was published in 1990, I don't worry about the CGC Census. I know there are plenty of raw copies out there in collections, and it wasn't that long ago until collectors started deeming this key issue worthy of getting graded.


CGC 9.8s did pretty good this year and drop kicked it with a $300 sale, increasing $220.01. However, it not so surprisingly dropped in value in the months between August and September.

The latest sale in October of this year bumped it back up into the $300 zone after it struggled in the $100 range for quite some time. Considering that 2014 had zero sales of this key issue at 9.8s, it's done quite well for a Copper Age comic that's just recently been recognized in the market.

However, I don't think it will sustain after movie hype is done concerning the Infinity Gauntlet and more copies are submitted and graded 9.8s, but that's just how I see things. We'll have to see how it goes.

9.6s for Silver Surfer #44 also did well. It surpassed the $100 mark and sustained during August and September. One copy on eBay currently is asking for $175 with four people watching it. 

Does a 9.6 for this comic really deserve a $45 increase in almost two months? I'll let you decide for yourself concerning the answer.



These kinds of posts take time to do. Looking at values is fun, but it's not really the only objective.

Some only like to look at the values for whatever grade they have for a certain key issue, but I think that's a mistake. When you really look at the values for all grades for a key issue, you may be able to find things that don't make sense like Luke Cage Hero for Hire #1 6.5s to 5.0s.

Now, I'm not saying these grades should be significantly apart in value, but having four grades bunched up in the $250 range is odd and that's the best way I can describe it. Sure, I know that key issue is hot at the moment and pretty scarce in the market currently, but like I mentioned before, something's gotta give for those grades.

Also, just because there's a $2,000 disparity in-between grades, doesn't mean that the lower grade behind it needs a significant bump in value. It could be a minor bump of $50 to $100  or so bucks, or it could just remain the same. 

However, if a 7.0 sold lower or at the same price than a 6.5, it could mean that the higher one should be bumped up more or the lower graded one after it should drop more. Once again "should" is the word there, and either or is a toss up.

If the lower graded one drops, and the grades after that lower one are near in price like with the Hero for Hire #1, then those lower grades should drop also in the near future.

I've always advocated researching your comics when it comes to either buying or selling. Nobody else is going to do it for you.

Surely not me unless you're willing to throw down money for my services. Researching this stuff is just a way of keeping you alert if you have those grades or if you're thinking of buying that key issue at the grades that have recent odd sales.

Then you can come to your own conclusions about what should be or shouldn't be based on the sales data given, and not just from your own bias.


15 comments:

  1. Man, you got me thinking heavy about getting that Silver Surfer 44... Still its a modern comic with - I suppose - a higher print run. Tricky.

    Ace

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  2. went to show last weekend and it was crazy seeing what people are paying and asking for nyx 3 while NM 98 were more reasonable prices than what I saw over the summer. JW

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    Replies
    1. Ok, I'm heading over there JW! NM #98s are still way over-bloated at the cons here for raw copies (priced the same as their CGC counterparts). It must be the lack of water in these parts. Haha...kidding...well, sort of!

      Delete
  3. Good day to you Mr. Sir Mayhem sir.

    If you would have to decide, which one would you get out of those three:

    - House of Secrets 92
    - Ms Marvel 1
    - New Mutants 98

    Would be nice to hear because I' ve got to spend my paycheck wisely. The market is sucking my pockets dry like that vacuum cleaner from Spaceballs. Good days to sell, hard days to collect ;-)

    Max Rebo

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    Replies
    1. Ms. Marvel #1 right now is taking an immaculate dump in the market. Almost every grade of Ms. Marvel #1 is bombing pretty hard. If you're just collecting in a fan sense without regard to the investment side, Ms. Marvel #1 is becoming more affordable in the currently.

      Whether this comic rebounds or not is a huge gamble.

      I've stated my position quite a few times about NM #98 or the first appearance of Deadpool. No doubt that Deadpool is the cash cow Marvel character like Wolverine was in the late 80s and 90s.

      However, his first appearance is super flexing on the "demand" principle without much regard to "rarity", so that makes me a bit uneasy. If you are a hard core fan of Deadpool, unlike me, just having a copy would be awesome regardless.

      In terms of House of Secrets #92, it's quite a lot more rarer than NM #98, but not so much as Ms. Marvel #1, only about 500 copy difference (total CGC submitted). There are a lot more 9.8s for Ms. Marvel #1 compared to House of Secrets #92.

      Actually, there are quite a bit of higher grades for Ms. Marvel #1 as opposed to HoS #92. The character Ms. Marvel doesn't have natural fan base backing though like Deadpool.

      To be honest, Ms. Marvel #1 only got in the spotlight or became in-demand due to movie hype. I've mentioned that a few times on here. Now, Swamp Thing isn't as hugely popular as Deadpool for sure, but the character does have more natural fan base than Ms. Marvel does currently (speculator base does not count).

      I would lay my money down on HoS #92 out of the three, but I'm thinking of in terms of comic investing or long term holds.

      Delete
  4. Yes, the good old Mega Maid - who can not remember her? I would gun for Swampys first appearance. Scarce, important and first of all bound to be holding its value. Can' t say that for the other two.

    Speculation Jones

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  5. More confidence in HOS#92 than the two...my next purchase after FF #48.

    A2theBriel

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  6. house of secrets 92 is by far the more important of those 3 books.
    a very solid long term investment.

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  7. I'd go HoS as well. I think NM #98 is extremely over saturated and will only get worse once the inevitable sell off from the movie. Don't get me wrong, the book will still be popular and valuable but I just don't see it maintaining the price it's at.

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  8. Hey guys I'd like to clear things up about the 1st Infinity Guantlet app. The real 1st app of the Infinity Guantlet is Thanos Quest #2. It came out several months before Silver Surfer #44. Yes Silver Surfer #44 is the 1st app in continuity. But not the 1st app overall. This 1st app stuff seems very confusing to the marketplace.

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    Replies
    1. The actual Infinity Gauntlet never shows up in Thanos Quest. It's the issue where Thanos receives all six gems and continued from issue #1, but the actual infinity gauntlet is never shown. The six gems do outside of the gauntlet.

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  9. I'm sure glad I bought a high grade copy of hero for hire #1 over five years ago. My book grades around 8.5/9.0 raw. It was bought for around $80 or so. I might try to sell it next year. Looks like some nice profit might be in my future.

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  10. Thanks for all your help & input! Much appreciated. I' m gonna buy me a House of Secrets then.

    Max Rebo

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  11. Just for info: I missed out on House of Secrets (180 € on ebay) and New Mutants 98 (230 € on ebay). Hope you all also have some love for Ms Marvel, 'cause I got Nr. 1 - 4 from the first series for 70 bucks!

    Max Rebo

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  12. There was a 9.8 Hero for hire sold on comic link.. for over ten grand !

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