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Monday, March 2, 2015

Wolverine #1 Limited Series vs Amazing Spider-Man #300


Okay, this one has to do with a question I received by Mike R. involving a specific trade. The trade in question is an Amazing Spider-Man #300 CGC 9.2 low NM for a Wolverine #1 CGC 9.8 from the 1982 limited series. The question was how would I weigh in these two Copper Age key issues and which would I choose over the other?

Well, honestly, I wouldn't do anything different than what I've already done in the last two key issue vs. key issue comic posts, and that's pretty much do my research on the specific grades in question. So, this isn't a traditional head to head comparison between two comic investments and only the two grades given will be covered for the most part.

Just like with the others that are like this post, I'm gonna evaluate key issue status. How significant are the two key issue comics in question? Well, let's take a looksie.



 AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #300
 WOLVERINE #1 LIMITED SERIES

1st full appearance of Venom
Todd McFarlane art


1st self-titled comic series
1st appearance of Yukio
Frank Miller art


When it comes to the significance of both issues in question, they are pretty even. Yes, Wolverine #1 from the 1982 limited series is the first self-titled series for Wolvie.

Also, it is a fan-favorite storyline. After all, the 2nd solo Wolverine movie was based on this story. Artwork for the series is also done by Frank Miller, and there's plenty of fans of his work for sure. Then again, there are plenty of Todd McFarlane fans out there as well, and his run on Amazing Spider-Man is most definitely a fan favorite as well. I happen to be fans of both so that should wipe out any bias.

However, when we get to the 1st appearance part, there's no doubt that the first appearance of Venom greatly outweighs the first appearance of Yukio when it comes to most comic fans. Venom is one of the most popular characters to come out of the Copper Age of comics without a doubt.

Yukio? While cool for this particular storyline, the character really hasn't done much since or outside of the Wolverine mythos. When it comes to fan-favorites between the two characters, Venom clearly wins with most comic fans.

Both comics are significant and even though I am a Wolverine fan and the limited series is one of my favorite Wolverine story lines, I have to give it up to Amazing Spider-Man #300 a tad bit more in what the back issue market deems as more desirable. Then again, I'm also a Venom fan as well.

But that factor is hardly the last concerning this trade. Fan biases aside, we also got the CGC census to check out. The first is Amazing Spider-Man #300 and the last image is Wolverine #1 Limited Series.



I've marked the specific grades in question, which are a ASM #300 CGC 9.2 and a Wolverine #1 CGC 9.8. They are pretty close in numbers for the total of each grades. If we are going to look at just the Universals, there's only about 30 more Wolverine #1 9.8s than  ASMs at 9.2 low NM.

In looking at these numbers, the rarity factor doesn't make much difference concerning these key issues at the grades in question. Nothing about the data really clues me into anything out of the ordinary or one is more rarer than the other.

Once again, we turn to past performance and current performance for the two key issue comics in question. 



 ASM #300 2003 OVERSTREET VALUES
 WOLVERINE #1 2003 OVERSTREET VALUES

9.4 NM - $85
9.2 NM- - $77
9.0 VF/NM - $69
8.0 VF - $53
6.0 FN - $21
4.0 VG - $14
2.0 GD - $7


9.4 NM - $55
9.2 NM- - $50
9.0 VF/NM - $45
8.0 VF - $34
6.0 FN - $15
4.0 VG - $10
2.0 GD - $5

Even though, Wolverine #1 Limited Series came out 6 years prior to ASM #300, the first appearance of Venom clearly beats the values of Wolvie's first comic series at every grade. 


 ASM #300 2014 OVERSTREET VALUES
 WOLVERINE #1 2014 OVERSTREET VALUES

9.2 NM- - $200
9.0 VF/NM - $150
8.0 VF - $100
6.0 FN - $60
4.0 VG - $40
2.0 GD - $20


9.2 NM- - $80
9.0 VF/NM - $57
8.0 VF - $33
6.0 FN - $15
4.0 VG - $10
2.0 GD - $5

Wow, according to Overstreet, Venom is still kicking Wolvie's butt in this match up. To be fair and when it comes to calculating growth in the next part, I'm going to use ASMs grade of 9.2 and match it up with Wolverine #1's 9.2 growth just to see. As always, numbers can look deceiving at first glance, but in this case, it clearly looks like who the winner is.

 ASM #300 2014 VALUE INCREASE
 WOLVERINE 2014 VALUE INCREASE

9.2 NM- - $123
9.0 VF/NM - $81
8.0 VF - $47
6.0 FN - $39
4.0 VG - $26
2.0 GD - $13


9.2 NM- - $30
9.0 VF/NM - $12
8.0 VF - $1 (loss)
6.0 FN - $0
4.0 VG - $0
2.0 GD - $0

Just from the data already presented, it looks pretty clear in whether or not I'd make this trade. Compared to ASM #300, Wolverine #1 has done pretty poorly in about a 10 year period. However, this is an uneven match up concerning that ASM #300 is at a 9.2 low NM and the Wolverine #1 in question is at a 9.8.

Just to be certain, I still like to check the eBay sales concerning these two grades. Once again, this is where GoCollect comes handy to find out recent performance. This is the 2 year average sales values on eBay concerning CGC copies. ASM is on the left, and Wolverine #1 is on the right.



The two grades appear to be pretty even. CGC 9.2 ASM #300s are only a few dollars more. Quite a bit of sales for Wolverine #1 even at super high grade 9.8s. Still, Amazing Spider-Man #300 beats it slightly in the past 2 years. 

Let's take a look a little deeper and see the 1 year averages for eBay sales concerning these two issues at the specific grades in question.

Looks like ASM #300 at CGC 9.2 moved up to an average of $229.88, and Wolverine moved up to $209.79 for CGC 9.8s. Growth between the two comics are widening. The two year showed a gap of $10.48 between the two grades. In the past 1 year ASM #300 at CGC 9.2 was worth $20.09 more.

Still, what does the 3 month outlook look like. This should be interesting.

Okay, so once again, the first appearance of Venom did show growth and so did Wolverine #1. From a $209.79 1 year average, Wolverine #1 at CGC 9.8 grew only about $6 and some change. ASM #300 at CGC 9.2 however grew from $229.88 to $246.75. That's about a $16.87 increase.

It's not a huge margin of actual growth between the two mismatched grades, but ASM #300 is still a more desired book at CGC 9.2 than Wolverine #1 1982 at CGC 9.8. Once again, I don't care about the percentages on the right or whether they're red or green. I want to see actual growth or actual loss.

So getting back to the trade. If I had a Wolverine #1 1982 limited series at CGC 9.8 and some guy wanted to trade an Amazing Spider-Man #300 at CGC 9.2, would I do it?

I'd have to say I would. Despite that fact that there are a lot of copies submitted to CGC for Amazing Spider-Man #300, the past growth for Overstreet and GoCollect has seen ASM #300 perform better than it's competition. If you really want to get to the nitty gritty, ASM #300 has outperformed Wolverine #1 at almost every grade level.

It's clearly been a more desired book and that's obvious. However, if I had the Amazing Spider-Man #300 CGC 9.2 and somebody with a Wolverine #1 1982 Limited Series at a CGC 9.8 wanted to trade that for my ASM, I would have to decline on that offer.

This isn't about just wanting a certain key issue. If it was just about that, make the trade. This has to do with what's the better investment trade if the situation ever came up.

Based on the data, I revealed what I would do, but you could have a completely different outlook on the trade. Well, hope this helps and you enjoyed another one of these head to head key issue comic battles.




14 comments:

  1. Nice work Mayhem...always enjoy reading these.

    Thumbs up
    Abriel

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    Replies
    1. Glad you liked it, Abriel and thanks for the thumbs up.

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  2. Thanks for doing this..

    I appreciate the information on this potential trade. I was the one with the Wolverine book.. Needless to say, the potential trader backed out of the deal, but I would have made that trade. Upon looking into the numbers, I noticed how similar the values were, census numbers, recent sale prices etc. Given that these are different grades, different series, different characters, I thought it would make for a cool comparison.

    Thanks again for your efforts
    MR

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    Replies
    1. No problem MR and thanks for bringing it up. Surely snagged my interest also, but not that surprised the guy backed out of the deal, and it was a cool comparison.

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  3. I'm not surprised the trade fell through in this current market. Speculation and movie buzz is causing pure craziness now a days. Venom is hot and wolverine is always hot. In the long run however, I think owning super high grade wolvie #1 is the way to go. That's just because I like wolverine way more than venom! But teenage kids can't get enough of the venoms, dead pools, and Harley's, so who knows which comic will perform 20-30 years from now??!

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    Replies
    1. Would be interesting to see 20 to 30 years from now, but if we're going by performance growth concerning Overstreet data for the last 10 or 11 years, the first appearance of Venom destroys Wolverine #1 Limited series at every grade level.

      That was the x factor I took into account in deciding my outcome, but like I said, if you're a fan of Wolvie and just want the comic and don't really care for Venom, make the trade. Fan bias aside, I'd still have to go with ASM #300.

      Delete
  4. Great article. Thanks TCM. Is there an easy way to figure out the 2nd app of Joker's Daughter? I am thinking Batman Family #9.

    Thanks

    GN

    Thanks

    GN

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are correct. 2nd appearance of Joker's Daughter is Batman Family #9. 2nd appearance of Duela Dent (actual character) is Batman Family #8, in which she appears as Catgirl.

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  5. there will always be demand for Wolverine key issues. but clearly the first Vemon is the better book to own. the character is here to stay.

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    Replies
    1. Definitely agree,

      for me it' s like the decision between the first appearance of Deadpool and the Nr. 1 of his first ongoing series - both doing fine, but NM 98 would always come out on top.

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    2. I'd have to agree also. I'm interested to see if Deadpool #1 from the first series sustains it's value though.

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  6. Heya Mayhem,
    check out Daredevil 36 - this is a cover
    you should like! Not talking about the
    collecting value here... ;-)
    Ace

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's awesome!

      Delete
    2. Haha! I actually got a kick out of that. Thanks for bringing that up Ace...pretty darn cool!

      Delete