Thursday, January 29, 2015

Amazing Spider-Man #6 vs Amazing Spider-Man #14

Here we are with another head to head of which comic investment is the better of the other. This was also suggested by JW and sorry for getting around to this one so late but these do take time. 

Going head to head are two Amazing Spider-Man comics and both are first appearance key issues. This time in the octagon are Amazing Spider-Man #6, first appearance of the Lizard, and Amazing Spider-Man #14, first appearance of Green Goblin.

Just like with the last comic vs. comic regarding X-Men #94 and Giant Size X-Men #1, we'll be going by the same criteria to determine the better of the two comic investments. Here they are again:

1. Key issue importance - What's the key issue status of these two comics and why are they important to the over-all back issues market as comic investments?

2. Values - Values of the two comics across the board of all grades. The values will be determined by Overstreet Price Guide and Go Collect for CGC sales. Go Collect is the most reliable source of tracking eBay CGC sales and averages for the past two years, one year, or a few months.

Overstreet Price Guide values will be based off the last decade of values to see how they've grown according to OPG, and which has outperformed the other in comic investing terms.

3. Growth - The value increases or growth of the two comics at various grades for the span of about a decade according to Overstreet and Go Collect.

4. Rarity - Of course, we have to look at the CGC Census to see the rarity of slabbed copies compared to one another to see if there is any disparity.


 Amazing Spider-Man #6
 Amazing Spider-Man #14

 First appearance of Lizard
Origin of the Lizard


 First appearance of Green Goblin

Now with this one, Amazing Spider-Man #6 also has the first appearance of the Lizard and his origin, while Amazing Spider-Man #14 only has the first appearance of the Green Goblin. Gobby's origin is in another issue though. 

It's not that big of a deal, considering that the Green Goblin is Spider-Man's most popular and well-known villain. However, Amazing Spider-Man #6 is within the first 10 issues of the first titled comic series and that gives it a bit of extra weight as well.


Unlike last time with the X-Men #94 and Giant Size X-Men #1, there isn't a huge disparity between prices at high grade NMs that we can compare. However, as shown in the 2 year CGC sales on eBay, there are quite a few gaps for certain grades pertaining to Amazing Spider-Man #6.

Even without noticing that, I'd still look up the CGC Census. Usually because I'm just curious and it's a habit of mine to do so. Amazing Spider-Man #6 is the first image and #14 follows it.



Pretty interesting. If you look at the total number of copies submitted, it seems that there are more Amazing Spider-Man #14s by a large margin. Also there's three ASM #6s at CGC 9.8 while ASM #14 has zero.


These books are less than a year apart from each other, so I'd actually have to say the reason more ASM #14s were submitted to be graded is simply because of the magnitude and popularity of the Green Goblin. Let's look at it a bit more starting with 9.6 NM+s.

ASM #6 and the first appearance of the Lizard has a total of 8 submitted copies compared to ASM #14s total of 24 NM+ copies. CGC 9.4 NMs are relatively close for both comics. 9.2 NM minus have a tad bit of a disparity. There's more than double 9.2  ASM #14s than it's competitor.

However, when we start getting down to the 8.5 VF+ and below, we start seeing more copies of the ASM #14 and the first appearance of Green Goblin than ASM #6. Then again, there are 878 less submissions for the first appearance of the Lizard compared to the first appearance of the Green Goblin.

In truth, Amazing Spider-Man #6 really blew up in demand when the character was announced to be the main villain of the Amazing Spider-Man movie reboot. Green Goblin has been an extremely popular villain and his first appearance in ASM #14 has been a book that's been in high-demand for quite a while.

In short, I'm not quite so sure about the rarity of ASM #6 compared to ASM #14. The values sold for high grade CGC copies are pretty close, but let's see how the two compare head to head according to Overstreet Guide.

ASM #6 2003 OVERSTREET VALUES
ASM #14 2003 OVERSTREET VALUES

9.2 NM- - $2021.50 
9.0 VF/NM – $1743
8.0 VF - $1185
6.0 FN – $417
4.0 VG – $278
2.0 GD – $139


9.2 NM- - $2440
9.0 VF/NM – $2080
8.0 VF - $1360
6.0 FN – $480
4.0 VG – $320
2.0 GD – $160

In 2003, it looks like ASM #14 trumps ASM #6, but let's look at the 2014 guide values.

ASM #6 2014 OVERSTREET VALUES
ASM #14 2014 OVERSTREET VALUES

9.2 NM- - $5200
9.0 VF/NM – $3339
8.0 VF - $1477
6.0 FN – $537
4.0 VG – $358
2.0 GD – $179


9.2 NM- - $5100
9.0 VF/NM – $3276
8.0 VF - $1452
6.0 FN – $528
4.0 VG – $352
2.0 GD – $176


As you can see, Amazing Spider-Man #6 made a major come back and closed the gap pretty closely for most grades. It even whallops Amazing Spider-Man #14 on every recorded guide grade level as well in the 2014 edition. Once again, according to the 2 year CGC sales from GoCollect, these numbers do not reflect the CGC sales on eBay for each grade, in which Amazing Spider-Man #14 still whomps the first appearance of the Lizard in most grades.

However, according to guide, let's see which two of these key comic issues had the better growth.


ASM #6 2014 VALUE INCREASE
ASM #14 2014 VALUE INCREASE

9.2 NM- - $3178.50
9.0 VF/NM – $1596
8.0 VF - $292
6.0 FN – $120
4.0 VG – $80
2.0 GD – $40


9.2 NM- - $2660
9.0 VF/NM – $1196
8.0 VF - $92
6.0 FN – $48
4.0 VG – $32
2.0 GD – $16


Pretty scary according to guide value increases. ASM #6 whomps ASM #14, but as I've always said, numbers at first glance can be deceiving. So let's actually take a look at the 1 year CGC sales and then see the growth compared to the 2 year CGC eBay sales.


In the last year on eBay, ASM #14 still beats ASM #6 in most grade categories except for 2.5 GD+s. Pretty interesting, so let's look at the growth according to the eBay CGC market compared from 1 year to 2 years.


ASM #6 2014 CGC GROWTH
ASM #14 2014 CGC GROWTH

9.8 M- | $ (No data)
9.6 NM+ | $ (No data)
9.4 NM | $0 (no sale 2014) 
9.2 NM- | $0 (no sale 2013)
9.0 VF/NM – $ (No data)
8.5 VF+ | $111.23 (up)
8.0 VF | $64.71 (up)
7.5 VF- | $83.79 (up)
7.0 FN/VF | -$8.83 (down)
6.5 FN+ | -$58.33 (down)
6.0 FN | $12.52 (up)
5.5 FN- | $44.88 (up)
5.0 VG/FN | $36.43 (up)
4.5 VG+ | $7.21 (up)
4.0 VG | $ (No Data)
3.5 VG- | $18.69 (up)
3.0 GD/VG | $1.75 (up)
2.5 GD+ | $2.12 (up)
2.0 GD | $ (No Data)


9.8 M- | $ (No data)
9.6 NM+ | $0 (no sale 2014)
9.4 NM | $0 (no sale 2014) 
9.2 NM- | $0 (no sale 2014)
9.0 VF/NM | -$12.50 (down)
8.5 VF+ | $12.55 (up)
8.0 VF | $71.25 (up)
7.5 VF- | $ (No Data)
7.0 FN/VF | $68 (up)
6.5 FN+ | $52.23 (up)
6.0 FN | $147.49 (up)
5.5 FN- | $93.33 (up)
5.0 VG/FN | $47.29 (up)
4.5 VG+ | $66.40 (up)
4.0 VG | $42.93 (up)
3.5 VG- | $58.61 (up)
3.0 GD/VG | $43.23 (up)
2.5 GD+ | -$11.73 (down)
2.0 GD | $ (No Data)


If we look at the growth from 2 years compared to 1 year, you can see there's a lot of grades where we can't really compare them due to either no sales in that time frame or no sales in either year. Regardless, for those that we can compare, Amazing Spider-Man #14 clearly beats Amazing Spider-Man #6 in growth.

Even the grades that showed values going down, ASM #14 had less value loss than ASM #6, which the largest loss was $58.33 at CGC 6.5 FN+. Total value loss for ASM #6 was $67.16 and for ASM #14 the total value loss was $24.23 out of the whole spectrum of grades.

I don't even have to continue and could assume that the winner is clearly the first appearance of Green Goblin when it comes to performance, but I'll just throw in the 3 month CGC eBay sales data according to GoCollect.


For the grades with sales that we can compare, ASM #14 clearly beats ASM #6 in head to head values for the 3 month outlook as well. So what are the over-all results.

According to Overstreet Guide, Amazing Spider-Man #6 and the first appearance of Lizard or Curt Connors had the best growth, but if you take a look at the eBay CGC sales data on GoCollect, this doesn't really ring true. Amazing Spider-Man #14 has proven to be more valuable for nearly every grade and garnered the most growth for most CGC graded sales as well.

Although ASM #6 is a super early ASM key issue, I have to give this one to Amazing Spider-Man #14. The first appearance of the Green Goblin beats the first appearance of the Lizard for now.

The reason I say for now is because this market is pretty fickle at best. We are in a speculator market and there is no telling what can happen with the Lizard in the movie realm that could give ASM #6 that extra boost and drive up demand and prices once again.

Both are great comic investments and Spider-Man key comics to get no doubt, but in this comparison, I'd have to say Green Goblin taps out the Lizard.